Least median of squares: a suitable objective function for stock assessment models?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Robust fitting methods, intended for data sets possibly contaminated with invalid observations, are gaining increased use in analysis of fishery data. In particular, the method of least median of squares (LMS) has attracted attention. Its hallmark is high statistical resistance, which makes it immune to up to 50% contamination in the data. However, the same property makes it inefficient and can cause faulty fitting of typical fishery data. The LMS fit can be in conflict with important sections of a time series, a problem we illustrate by fitting a biomass dynamic (surplus production) model to simulated and actual fishery data. Additionally, we illustrate that LMS parameter estimates can be highly sensitive to small perturbations in the data. Other robust methods, like the method of least absolute values (LAV), appear less prone to such problems. A key reference on LMS recommends using the method as part of an exploratory procedure to identify outliers, rather than as an objective function for final model fitting. We concur with that recommendation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.017 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".