A Neural Network Approach to Multi-step-ahead, Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents a novel neural network-based approach to short-term, multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting. The methodology combines predictions from a set of feed forward neural networks whose inputs comprehend a set of 11 explanatory variables related to past averages of wind speed, direction, temperature and time of the day, and their outputs represent estimates of specific wind speed averages. Forecast horizons range from 30 minutes up to 6:30 hours ahead with 30 minutes time steps. Final forecasts at specific horizons are combinations of corresponding neural network predictions. Data used in the experiments are telemetric measurements of weather variables from five wind farms in eastern Canada, covering the period from November 2011 to April 2013. Results show that the methodology is effective and outperforms established reference models particularly at longer horizons. The method performed consistently across sites leading up to more than 60% improvement over persistence and 50 % over a more realistic MA-based reference.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".