Role of Japan-US relative GDP and broad money supply in determining the yen-dollar exchange rate
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyses the role of relative GDP and broad money supply (M2) in the determination of the yen-dollar exchange rate. The sample period spans from the first quarter of 1988 to the second quarter of 2004. Standard cointegration procedures are applied. No clear evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among the variables. The estimates of the VAR model reveal short run causal flows from Japan-US relative GDP and relative broad money supply to the yen-dollar exchange rate with interactive feedbacks. The effects of the relative GDP on the yen-dollar exchange rate have no definitive patterns. The effects of the relative broad money supply are counterintuitive during this turbulent period of the Japanese economy.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it