Small-area Variations and Sociodemographic Correlates for the Incidence of Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The objectives of this study were to describe variations in the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) within the Canadian province of Manitoba and to analyze sociodemographic factors associated with these variations. The authors used the Manitoba Health insurance databases to measure incidence rates of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis for each of 52 postal areas in Manitoba, in 1987-1996. The sociodemographic characteristics of the postal areas were based on data from the 1996 Canadian census. The overall incidence rates of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis were identical-15.6 per 100,000. Both diseases showed substantial geographic variation, with incidence rates differing significantly from the provincial average in 15 postal areas for Crohn's disease and in 13 postal areas for ulcerative colitis. There was a significant geographic correlation in the incidence of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis (r = 0.49, p < 0.001). The incidence of IBD was higher in urban areas (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.45). Aboriginal Canadians had significantly lower rates of both Crohn's disease (IRR = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.22) and ulcerative colitis (IRR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.42, 0.79). A higher incidence of IBD was ecologically associated with a higher average family income, a lower proportion of immigrant and Aboriginal Canadian populations, and a smaller average family size.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".