Chronicle of a death foretold? understanding the decline of fine gael
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since its highpoint in the early 1980s, when under Garret FitzGerald, Fine Gael received almost 40 per cent of the first preference vote and took the party to within five seats of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael's electoral support has declined significantly and steadily to a stage where in 2002 they received little over 20 per cent of the vote. We examine some hypothesised causes of this decline, including the effect of the arrival of the PDs, and Ireland's new coalition politics since 1989. We adapt Peter Mair's hypothesis that ‘coalitionability’ would strengthen Fianna Fáil, to argue that it has also caused the decline of Fine Gael by making the party less relevant to voters who wish to influence the formation of a government. This had the effect of allowing parties such as the PDs to continue to take support from Fine Gael. We offer empirical evidence to support this claim.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".