Linking ‘10‐year’ herbivore cycles to the lunisolar oscillation: the cosmic ray hypothesis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The mean population cycle periods of the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus , the larch budmoth Zeiraphera diniana , and the autumnal moth Epirrita autumnata are 9.3 years, similar to the lunar nodal phase cycle. When the full/new Moon is situated close to the ecliptic plane at solstice, it interacts more strongly with the magnetosphere, which plays a crucial role in protecting the Earth against ionizing cosmic ray particles. Ionization by cosmic rays induces protein mobilization in plants, which may increase forage quality for herbivores. Series of hare/lynx population indices from Canadian provinces and an autumnal moth series from Fennoscandia correlated with the lunar nodal phase cycle with different time lags. Both the time lag and the impact of an active sun, which increases solar energetic particles, but decreases galactic cosmic ray particles, were related to radiation or the distance from the auroral oval. These insights improve our ability to explain and understand population peaks, and should also motivate further studies on the effects of cosmic rays on plant chemistry and herbivore performance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".