A Population-Based Case-Control Study of CARD15 and Other Risk Factors in Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Multiple established Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) risk factors including family history, tobacco use, Jewish ethnicity, urban residency, and CARD15/NOD2 mutations have been evaluated singly and in hospital-based observational studies. The goal of this study was to assess the relative contributions of all these risk factors jointly in a nonreferral, population-based cohort derived from a population epidemiologic database. METHODS: CD (N = 232) and UC (N = 121) subjects were ascertained from our population-based IBD Registry derived from Manitoba Health, the single provincial insurer. Healthy controls (HC) (N = 336) were recruited via a 10:1 mailing matched for age, sex, and postal code. Ethnicity, tobacco use, family history, residency, and CARD15/NOD2 genotype status were determined. RESULTS: In both univariate analyses and analyses adjusted for all risk factors, CD was influenced independently by CARD15/NOD2 heterozygote and homozygote/compound-heterozygote status (adjusted odds ratios [OR] 3.7 and 40.0, respectively), Jewish ethnicity (OR 18.5), CD family history (OR 6.2), and smoking (OR 3.0 current and 1.7 ex-smoker, respectively). Penetrance for homozygote/compound-heterozygotes was 4.9%, heterozygotes 0.54%, and wild types 0.184%. Population attributable risk for CARD15 was 26.7% and current tobacco use was 46.8%. A tobacco-CARD15 interaction was not observed. UC was influenced by Jewish ethnicity (OR 37.1), and by family history (OR 2.6), ex-smoker status (OR 1.9), and CARD15/NOD2 heterozygote or homozygote/compound-heterozygote status (OR 1.9 and 6.4, respectively) in adjusted analyses only. CONCLUSIONS: CARD15/NOD2, family history, smoking, and Jewish ethnicity are independent risk factors for CD. Examination of these risk factors together in a single population-based cohort has provided initial data for population epidemiological characterization and genetic counseling uses.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".