Spatial analysis of the risk of major forest diseases in Monterey pine plantations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Diplodia pinea (causing diplodia blight), Fusarium circinatum (causing pitch canker), and Mycosphaerella spp. (causing needle blight) are examples of major fungal agents that damage Pinus spp. These diseases have a major negative impact on commercial plantation production, in addition to the risk of being introduced to native forest ecosystems. This study aimed to model the spatial risk of major forest diseases to Monterey pine plantations in northern Spain, to provide a basis for more focused management strategies. Generalized linear mixed‐effects models were used to identify empirical relationships between environmental variables and disease occurrence. Field surveys and laboratory tests confirmed that D. pinea caused shoot blight in 24% of sampled plantations. Fusarium circinatum and Mycosphaerella spp. were detected in 15 and 71% of analysed plantations, respectively. The results confirmed that disease risk was strongly related to summer precipitation, moderately related to solar radiation, followed by summer temperature and tree age. The predicted probability of disease incidence was >20, 98 and 85% for Mycosphaerella spp., F. circinatum and D. pinea , respectively. The resultant maps from this study may be used to identify high‐risk areas for increased monitoring and awareness of fungal diseases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".