The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Most researchers examining poverty and \n multilateral trade liberalization have had to examine \n average, or per capita effects, suggesting that if per \n capita real income rises, poverty will fall. This inference \n can be misleading. Combining results from a new \n international cross-section consumption analysis with \n earnings data from household surveys, this article analyzes \n the implications of multilateral trade liberalization for \n poverty in Indonesia. It finds that the aggregate reduction \n in Indonesia's national poverty headcount following \n global trade liberalization masks a more complex set of \n impacts across groups. In the short run the poverty \n headcount rises slightly for self-employed agricultural \n households, as agricultural profits fail to keep up with \n increases in consumer prices. In the long run the poverty \n headcount falls for all earnings strata, as increased demand \n for unskilled workers lifts incomes for the formerly \n self-employed, some of whom move into the wage labor market. \n A decomposition of the poverty changes in Indonesia \n associated with different countries' trade policies \n finds that reform in other countries leads to a reduction in \n poverty in Indonesia but that liberalization of \n Indonesia's trade policies leads to an increase. The \n method used here can be readily extended to any of the other \n 13 countries in the sample.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it