Confidence sets based on the positive part James–Stein estimator with the asymptotically constant coverage probability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The asymptotic expansions for the coverage probability of a confidence set centred at the James–Stein estimator presented in our previous publications show that this probability depends on the non-centrality parameter τ2 (the sum of the squares of the means of normal distributions). In this paper we establish how these expansions can be used for a construction of confidence region with constant confidence level, which is asymptotically (the same formula for both case τ→0 and τ→∞) equal to some fixed value 1−α. We establish the shrinkage rate for the confidence region according to the growth of the dimension p and also the value of τ for which we observe quick decreasing of the coverage probability to the nominal level 1−α. When p→∞ this value of τ increases as O(p1/4). The accuracy of the results obtained is shown by the Monte-Carlo statistical simulations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.127 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".