Detection and attribution of variability and trends in streamflow records from the Canadian Prairie Provinces
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Emerging period of record trends and low frequency (i.e. centennial-scale) variability were examined in streamflow records over the entire Canadian Prairie Provinces. The average record length was 52 years, with the longest record spanning 1911–2010. A modified Mann-Kendall trend analysis showed decreasing flows in Alberta and in southwestern Saskatchewan, no significant trends in the central Prairies and increased flows in Manitoba. Using composite analysis, this study also detected the impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the North Pacific Index (NPI), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific North American mode (PNA) on mean daily discharge. There are increased flows during the negative phases of the PDO and PNA, La Nina events and weak Aleutian lows, and decreased flows during the positive phases of the PDO, El Nino and strong Aleutian lows. A much weaker effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was detected. The ~60-year cycle of the PDO has important implications for the rec...
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".