Modelling multiple REIT indices using TAR models based on aggregation functions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to compare descriptive and predictive qualities of multivariate TAR models with threshold variables obtained via aggregation functions versus one-dimensional TAR models with endogenous as well as exogenous threshold variables. Time series of REIT indexes of 5 selected G7 countries (USA, Japan, Great Britain, France, Canada) were modelled. They manifest similar behaviour in the considered time period, January 1, 2000-May 8, 2012, divided into 3 sub-periods determined by the recent global financial markets crisis (July 1, 2008-April 30, 2009). The multivariate TAR models with threshold variables constructed via aggregation functions have in all cases better descriptive properties and in most cases they also show better prediction properties. A new subclass of those models, based on the OMA type of aggregation functions, exhibit promising properties both with respect to their descriptive and predictive performance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".