Extraterrestrial intelligence and doomsday: A critical assessment of the no-outsider requirement
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The so-called Doomsday Argument has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. One of the suggested ways to make this argument ineffective is the so-called No-Outsider requirement, indicating that the presence of other intelligent observers (?aliens?) beside humans invalidates the reasoning leading to the apocalyptic conclusion. Obviously, this argumentation bears relevance not only to the effectiveness of the Doomsday Argument, but also to the issues like the relativization of the reference class in anthropic reasoning, transhumanism and the SETI theory. Hereby we critically investigate the No-Outsider Requirement and conclude that it is either fallacious or irrelevant.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.020 | 0.041 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.047 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.022 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.009 | 0.014 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".