A New Distribution-Free Approach to Constructing the Confidence Region for Multiple Parameters
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Construction of confidence intervals or regions is an important part of statistical inference. The usual approach to constructing a confidence interval for a single parameter or confidence region for two or more parameters requires that the distribution of estimated parameters is known or can be assumed. In reality, the sampling distributions of parameters of biological importance are often unknown or difficult to be characterized. Distribution-free nonparametric resampling methods such as bootstrapping and permutation have been widely used to construct the confidence interval for a single parameter. There are also several parametric (ellipse) and nonparametric (convex hull peeling, bagplot and HPDregionplot) methods available for constructing confidence regions for two or more parameters. However, these methods have some key deficiencies including biased estimation of the true coverage rate, failure to account for the shape of the distribution inherent in the data and difficulty to implement. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new distribution-free method for constructing the confidence region that is based only on a few basic geometrical principles and accounts for the actual shape of the distribution inherent in the real data. The new method is implemented in an R package, distfree.cr/R. The statistical properties of the new method are evaluated and compared with those of the other methods through Monte Carlo simulation. Our new method outperforms the other methods regardless of whether the samples are taken from normal or non-normal bivariate distributions. In addition, the superiority of our method is consistent across different sample sizes and different levels of correlation between the two variables. We also analyze three biological data sets to illustrate the use of our new method for genomics and other biological researches.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.025 | 0.110 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.008 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.008 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".