An Objectively Determined Blocking Index and its Northern Hemisphere Climatology
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A modified blocking index is defined based on vertically integrated potential vorticity. The application of this index identifies blocking activity over the Northern Hemisphere during all seasons. The index is developed by systematically identifying the magnitude and spatial scale that best characterizes persistent anticyclonic circulation anomalies in different seasons. By applying a systematic approach to the detection of blocking, the interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal patterns of blocking frequency across the Northern Hemisphere are able to be characterized. The results are consistent with previous studies in finding that blocking is more frequent in the cold season months than in the warm season, although the results suggest that blocking occurs much more frequently in the summer and fall than many studies have previously reported. By examining blocking frequency monthly, interesting patterns of intraseasonal variability are found, especially over the central Pacific in August and the eastern Pacific in September and October, where blocking is nearly as frequent as in the winter. Possible explanations for this intraseasonal variability are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".