Generational selfishness and social security: a time‐inconsistency problem in parametric reforms of PAYG
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines the increase in generational selfishness in parametric reforms of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems as a potential outcome of the time-inconsistency problem in optimal policies. When an adverse demographic shock occurs, the planner has to decide on its generational distribution in a parametric reform meant to keep the PAYG system running: benefits can be fixed for seniors or taxes can be stabilized for the young. This paper shows that if the compromising optimal policy between these two extreme examples is nonbinding, it becomes time-inconsistent. And, parametric reforms tend to be biased in favor of contemporaneous generations, unfair in terms of generational justice, and inefficient in terms of the optimal level of consumption.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it