Population Trends of Atlantic Coast Piping Plovers, 1986–2006
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Atlantic Coast population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) has been the focus of rangewide monitoring and recovery efforts since it was listed as Threatened in 1986 pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Breeding pairs in the U.S. and Eastern Canada were censused annually from 1986 through 2006, and productivity (chicks fledged per breeding pair) was reported annually for varying proportions of the population. Census totals more than doubled, from 790 pairs in 1986 to 1,749 pairs in 2006, concomitant with sustained intensive management. Population growth was greatest and most rapid in the New England and New York-New Jersey recovery units, while increases were more modest in the Southern and Eastern Canada units. Periodic rapid declines in the Southern and Eastern Canada units raise concerns about long-term risks of extirpation. The Atlantic Coast population became less evenly distributed between 1989 and 2006, with the percentage of the population breeding in New England increasing from 21.5% to 36.2% while declining proportionately in the other three recovery units. Overall productivity for the Atlantic Coast population 1989–2006 was 1.35 chicks fledged per pair (annual range = 1.16–1.54), and overall productivity within recovery units decreased with decreasing latitude: Eastern Canada = 1.61, New England = 1.44, New York-New Jersey = 1.18, and Southern = 1.19. Within recovery units, annual productivity was variable and showed no sustained trends. There were significant, positive relationships between productivity and population growth in the subsequent year for each of the three U.S. recovery units, but not for Eastern Canada. There was a latitudinal trend in predictions of annual productivity needed to support stationary populations (λ = 1.0) within recovery units, increasing from 0.93 chicks fledged per pair in the Southern unit to 1.44 in Eastern Canada. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that survival rates of Atlantic Coast Piping Plovers decline with increasing latitude of breeding sites, and suggest that modified productivity objectives that are specific to individual recovery units may be appropriate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".