Duration Dependence in Housing Price Market: A Metro Level Test in United States
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Duration dependence affects the dynamics of multi sate time to event outcomes. In this paper we are testing if a contraction or an expansion state for the housing price is duration dependent on previous states lengths. This test has implications for explaining the dynamics and the predictability of the housing prices in subsequent spells of contraction/expansion. The test is carried on using a discrete time duration model. This research shows that federal fund rate has strong effect on duration of both expansion and contraction. The analysis is also showing that while for both contraction and expansion spells we observe duration dependence, the risk of exiting from either spell at the beginning of the spell is practically flat for the first five to six years in the expansion spells and between seven and eight years in the contraction spells. After these periods the risk of exiting an expansion spell is increasing but in a non-monotone way, while for the contraction spell the risk of exiting the state is increasing in a monotone way, making the contraction periods easier to predict than the expansion periods.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it