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Record W1984839361 · doi:10.2118/62884-ms

Natural Gas: The Revolution Is Coming

2000· article· en· W1984839361 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueAll Days · 2000
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnergy
TopicGlobal Energy and Sustainability Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsNatural gasLiquefied natural gasPer capitaGas consumptionEconomic shortagePopulationConsumption (sociology)Fossil fuelEconomyMarket shareMarket researchBusinessEuropean unionCommerceEconomicsEngineeringInternational tradeFinanceWaste managementGovernment (linguistics)Environmental economics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Natural gas today accounts for about 22% of the world energy demand. This figure is skewed because of the 26% gas market share in the biggest consumer of them all, the United States. In Europe, outside of the former Soviet Union, with a population of 1.5 times that of the United States, gas accounts for 19% of the market. In terms of per capita energy consumption, the average U.S. citizen consumes about 2.2 times more gas than a European. These ratios both for total usage and gas market share in the energy mix became much more lopsided for almost all countries. A move toward increasing gas use is now under way, both from a demand and supply standpoint. For example, Brazil, the world's tenth largest economy with a current gas market share of 5%, has embarked into a very ambitious plan of increasing gas use. Several gas-producing countries have also announced very ambitious plans for markedly increased gas output. These include Qatar, Oman, Venezuela and, potentially the largest of them all, Saudi Arabia. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities are currently being built, and LNG tankers are forecast to experience very serious shortages over the next three to four years. The United States has made an emphatic move toward increased gas use. Already less than 5% of electric power generation uses oil. Well over 90% of new power generation built in the United States over the next decade will be fueled by natural gas. Gas-fired turbine manufacturing is experiencing a three-year backlog. Once manufacturing catches up with demand, the transition to natural gas will cause substantial shortages for a considerable stretch of time—covering not just the traditional peaks in winter heating but also new peaks associated with summer electricity demands. More crucial, we believe that environmental concerns, real or imagined, will push the emergence of fuel cells much faster than currently envisioned. Natural gas will be in the center of this transformation, resulting in a greatly expanded market share of gas in the world energy mix, increasing to 40–50% by the year 2020. We present below a comprehensive analysis of the current state of natural gas supply and demand; we provide the conventional forecasts and rationalize our forecasts, which are heavily influenced by electric deregulation, LNG conversion and fuel cells. Introduction At the time of this writing, natural gas consumption in the United States has reached an estimated 23 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year. This is very near the highest consumption rate of natural gas, which was experienced in the 1972–1974 period. Figure 1 presents the history of natural gas consumption in the United States and the other G-7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom).1

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.877
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.013
GPT teacher head0.268
Teacher spread0.255 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it