Trends in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Prevalence, Incidence, and Mortality in Ontario, Canada, 1996 to 2007
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a preventable and treatable disease with a prevalence of more than 10% worldwide among adults 40 years and older. Whether this amount has been increasing, decreasing, or stable over time remains unknown. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study using population-based, health administrative data from 1991 to 2007 was conducted in Ontario, Canada. Individuals with COPD were identified using a previously validated health administrative case definition of COPD. Annual COPD prevalence, incidence, and all-cause mortality rates were estimated from 1996 to 2007. RESULTS: The prevalence of COPD increased by 64.8% between 1996 and 2007. The age- and sex-standardized COPD prevalence rate increased from 7.8% to 9.5%, representing a relative increase of 23.0% (P < .001). The age- and sex-standardized incidence decreased from 11.8 per 1000 adults to 8.5 per 1000 adults, representing a relative decrease of 28.3% (P < .001). Finally, the age- and sex-standardized all-cause mortality rate decreased from 5.7% to 4.3%, representing a relative decrease of 24.0% (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate a substantial increase in COPD prevalence in the last decade, with more of the burden being shifted from men to women. Effective clinical and public health strategies are needed to prevent COPD and manage the increasing number of people living longer with this disease.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".