Trends in winter extreme minimum temperatures on the Canadian prairies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
One of the expected effects of climate change is a change in the magnitudes of extreme temperatures. This effect is likely to be pronounced on the Canadian Prairies, which experience a continental climate. This study investigates the extreme minimum temperatures of the winter season at rural or small urban prairie locations, having long periods of record. For each winter month, daily minima are analysed for the number of occurrences of temperatures colder than two standard deviations from the mean minimum for the month. A Mann‐Kendall nonparametric test for the trend is then applied to the counts obtained for the period of record in order to test the significance of the results. Following this, a spatial analysis of each month's trend is carried out using inverse distance weighting. During January and February it was found that there was a significant trend towards fewer occurrences of very cold minimum daily temperature during the period 1914–94. This is especially noticeable in western portions of the prairies where the null hypothesis is rejected with better than 99% confidence. During March, significant trends were found at only a few sites and during December, there were no significant trends.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".