Estimating parameter uncertainties in matched field inversion by a neighborhood approximation algorithm
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Bayesian inversion, the solution is characterized by its posterior probability density (PPD). A fast Gibbs sampler (FGS) has been developed to estimate the multi-dimensional integrals of the PPD, which requires solving the forward models many times and leads to intensive computation for multi-frequency or range-dependent inversion cases. This paper presents an alternative approach based on a neighborhood approximation Bayes (NAB) algorithm. For lower dimension geoacoustic inversion, the NAB can approximate the PPD very well. For higher dimensional problems and sensitive parameters, however, the NAB algorithm has difficulty estimating the PPD accurately with limited model samples. According to the preliminary PPD estimation from the NAB, this paper developed a multi-step inversion scheme, which adjusts the parameter search intervals flexibly, in order to improve the approximation accuracy of the NAB and obtain more complete parameter uncertainties. The prominent feature of the NAB is to approximate the PPD by incorporating all models for which the forward problem has been solved into the appraisal stage. Comparison of the FGS and NAB for noisy synthetic benchmark test cases and Mediterranean real data indicates that the NAB provides reasonable estimates of the PPD moments while requiring significantly less computation time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".