Diabetes Risk Among Overweight and Obese Metabolically Healthy Young Adults
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine diabetes incidence over time among obese young adults without metabolic risk factors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Incident diabetes during a median follow-up of 6.1 years was assessed among 33,939 young men (mean age 30.9 ± 5.2 years) of the Metabolic, Lifestyle and Nutrition Assessment in Young Adults cohort who were stratified for BMI and the number of metabolic abnormalities (based on the Adult Treatment Panel-III). Metabolically healthy (MH) obesity was defined as BMI ≥30 kg/m2 in the presence of normoglycemia, normal blood pressure, and normal levels of fasting triglyceride and HDL-cholesterol levels (n = 631). RESULTS: A total of 734 new cases of diabetes were diagnosed during 210,282 person-years of follow-up. The incidence rate of diabetes among participants with no metabolic risk factors was 1.15, 2.10, and 4.34 cases per 1,000 person-years among lean, overweight, and obese participants, respectively. In a multivariable model adjusted for age, region of origin, family history of diabetes, physical activity, fasting plasma glucose, triglyceride level, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and white blood cell count, a higher diabetes risk was observed among MH-overweight (hazard ratio [HR] 1.89 [95% CI 1.25-2.86]; P < 0.001) and MH-obese (HR 3.88 [95% CI 1.94-7.77]; P < 0.001) compared with MH-normal weight subjects. There was no interaction between BMI and the number of metabolic abnormalities at enrollment in predicting diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy metabolic profile and the absence of diabetes risk factors do not protect young adults from incident diabetes associated with overweight and obesity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".