OECD Will Regain Pre-Crisis Levels of Output in 2011
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The second quarter of 2009 marked the end of the global recession, and we estimate that global GDP increased by 1 per cent. However, the revival reflected growth in only a handful of economies, and was driven by a rise in domestic demand in an even smaller collection of countries. Government spending in mainland China, as well as Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, was the driving force behind the rebound in global GDP. The recovery broadened to the majority of economies in the third quarter of last year, with particularly strong growth in Mexico, Brazil, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia, as well as the Asian economies. Output continued to fall in the UK, Spain, Greece and several of the EU's new member states in the third quarter of 2009. Supported by highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, a sharp turn in the inventory cycle and external demand from Asia, the recovery has not yet spread to investment and consumer spending in many countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".