Past incidence and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden: A report from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register regarding the effect of past and future population changes on the number of arthroplasties performed
Bibliographic record
Abstract
By combining data from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register and Swedish census registers we have calculated the past age-specific incidence of primary knee arthroplasties and predicted the demand. During the last 20 years, osteoarthrosis has accounted for the largest increase in number of knee arthroplasties while operations for rheumatoid arthritis remained constant. The mean yearly number of operations between the periods 1976-1980 and 1996-1997 increased more than five-fold, while only 6% of that increase could be explained by changes in the age-profile of the population. Most operations were performed on persons of 65 years and older who also had the largest increase in incidence. By using the incidences for 1996 and 1997 and taking into account the expected future changes in the age profile of the Swedish population, we estimate that, in the absence of an effective preventive treatment, the number of knee arthroplasties will increase by at least one third until 2030.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".