Interrater Reliability and Concurrent Validity of the HCR-20 Version 3
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We evaluated the interrater reliability and concurrent validity of the HCR-20 Version 3 (HCR-20 V3 ). Three sets of ratings were completed by experienced clinicians for 35 forensic psychiatric patients, for both HCR-20 Versions 2 and 3. Reliability analyses focused on ratings of the presence of Version 3 risk factors, presence of Version 3 risk factor sub-items, relevance ratings for Version 3 risk factors, and Version 3 summary risk ratings for future violence. Concurrent validity analyses focused on the correlational association between Versions 2 and 3 in terms of the number of risk factors present. Findings indicated that Versions 2 and 3 were strongly correlated (.69 – .90). Interrater reliability was consistently excellent for the presence of risk factors and for summary risk ratings. The majority of relevance and sub-item ratings were in the good to excellent range, although there was a minority of such ratings in the fair or poor categories. Findings support the concurrent validity and interrater reliability of HCR-20 V3 . Implications for use of HCR-20 V3 by professionals and agencies are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.168 | 0.311 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.008 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".