Younger Dryas: A data to model comparison to constrain the strength of the overturning circulation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) is used to compare simulated time series of radiocarbon during the Younger Dryas (YD) with paleoceanographic records. I find that only a complete shut‐down and recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can simulate both the rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations seen in ice core records and the peak and subsequent decrease in atmospheric Δ 14 C comparable to the peak recorded in the varved sediments of the Cariaco Basin. Simulated radiocarbon profiles in the western North Atlantic match well with data from deep‐sea corals at the beginning of the YD, whereas planktonic/benthic foraminifera records match best with a transient state during the rapid recovery of the AMOC. The steepness of the increase in atmospheric Δ 14 C at ∼12.9 ka cal could not be simulated with oceanic circulation changes only because the response time of the climate system is too slow.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".