Criminal Trajectories and Risk Factors in a Canadian Sample of Offenders
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study contributed to the criminal trajectory literature using a Canadian-based sample of offenders and examined childhood and adolescent predictors of trajectory group membership. The sample comprised 378 males who had been sentenced as youth, between 1986 and 1996, to one of two open custody facilities in Toronto, Canada. Official criminal records were obtained from late childhood and early adolescence into adulthood for an average follow-up of 12.1 years. Childhood and adolescent predictors reflecting individual, family, peer, and school domains were extracted from client files. Trajectory analysis yielded four groups, labeled moderate rate (MR); low rate (LR); high-rate, adult peaked (HRADL); and high-rate, adolescence peaked (HRADOL). Multinomial regression analyses indicated that risk factors representing the family and peer domains differentiated the MR, HRADL, and HRADOL groups from the LR group. Moreover, whereas both child and adolescent risk factors were associated with the MR, HRADL, and HRADOL groups, only adolescent risk factors were associated with the LR group.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".