Fast Uncertainty Quantification for 2D Full-waveform Inversion with Randomized Source Subsampling
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Uncertainties arise in every area of seismic exploration, especially in full-waveform inversion, which is highly non-linear. In the framework of Bayesian inference, uncertainties can be analyzed by sampling the posterior probability density distribution with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) method. We reduce the cost of computing the posterior distribution by working with randomized subsets of sources. These approximations, together with the Gaussian assumption and approximation of the Hessian, leads to a computational tractable uncertainty quantification. Application of this approach to a synthetic leads to standard deviations and confidence intervals that are qualitatively consistent with our expectations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it