Evidence of Arctic sea ice thinning from direct observations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly shrinking, but a direct, longer‐term assessment of the ice thinning remains challenging. A new time series constructed from in situ measurements of sea ice thickness at the end of the melt season in Fram Strait shows a thinning by over 50% during 2003–2012. The modal and mean ice thickness along 79°N decreased at a rate of 0.3 and 0.2 m yr−1, respectively, with long‐term averages of 2.5 and 3 m. Airborne observations reveal an east‐west thickness gradient across the strait in spring but not in summer due to advection from more different source regions. There is no clear relationship between interannual ice thickness variability and the source regions of the ice. The observed thinning is therefore likely a result of Arctic‐wide reduction in ice thickness with a potential shift in exported ice types playing a minor role.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".