Impacts on Traffic Diversion Rates of Changed Message on Changeable Message Sign
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Ontario Ministry of Transportation has installed 27 changeable message signs (CMSs) strategically upstream of express–collector transfer locations on Highway 401 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Motorists are informed by the CMSs of traffic conditions downstream of the transfer location to help them decide whether to take the next transfer. Loop detectors are installed at the transfer locations to measure traffic flow. The dynamic impacts of CMS messages on traffic diversion are evaluated by using 3 years of loop detector data, from 2003 to 2005. Time-series plots of aggregated diversion rates show that the initial transient response to the message change is significant and that, in addition to the messages themselves, the occurrence of a message change plays a vital role in influencing downstream diversion. Aggregate diversion rate plots also reveal that the logic underlying the Highway 401 CMSs may be causing the signs to react to diversion rate changes on many occasions, thereby closing a feedback control loop that effectively regulates the downstream diversion rates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".