Significant long-term increase of fossil fuel CO <sub>2</sub> uptake from reduced marine calcification
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Analysis of available plankton manipulation experiments demonstrates a previously unrecognized wide range of sensitivities of biogenic calcification to simulated anthropogenic acidification of the ocean, with the "lab rat" of planktic calcifiers, Emiliania huxleyi not representative of calcification generally. We assess the implications of the experimental uncertainty in plankton calcification response by creating an ensemble of realizations of an Earth system model that encapsulates a comparable range of uncertainty in calcification response. We predict a substantial future reduction in marine carbonate production, with ocean CO2 sequestration across the model ensemble enhanced by between 62 and 199 PgC by the year 3000, equivalent to a reduction in the atmospheric fossil fuel CO2 burden at that time of up to 13%. Concurrent changes in ocean circulation and surface temperatures contribute about one third to the overall importance of reduced plankton calcification.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".