A flexible maximum likelihood approach for fitting growth curves to tagrecapture data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We describe a novel maximum likelihood method for fitting general growth curves to tagrecapture data. The growth model allows for the asymptotic length and the time to tagging to vary from individual to individual, with other parameters being fixed. Unlike the Fabens approach, we do not take differences to fit the parameters, but instead model the joint density of the release and recapture lengths. We simulate data to examine the bias and precision of the estimated parameters obtained using our fitting method. We include simulations for which the time to tagging model is incorrect, but find that the growth curve is usually still fitted with small bias. Furthermore, we introduce a new growth curve that allows for different growth rates for juveniles and adults. The new growth curve needs sufficient data coverage before and after the transition from juvenile to adult for all parameters to be estimated precisely. We illustrate the method on real data by fitting this new growth curve to southern bluefin tuna tagrecapture data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".