International consensus for a definition of disease flare in lupus
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Lupus Foundation of America (LFA) convened an international working group to obtain a consensus definition of disease flare in lupus. With help from the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization (PRINTO), two web-based Delphi surveys of physicians were conducted. Subsequently, the LFA held a second consensus conference followed by a third Delphi survey to reach a community-wide agreement for flare definition. Sixty-nine of the 120 (57.5%) polled physicians responded to the first survey. Fifty-nine of the responses were available to draft 12 preliminary statements, which were circulated in the second survey. Eighty-seven of 118 (74%) physicians completed the second survey, with an agreement of 70% for 9/12 (75%) statements. During the second conference, three alternative flare definitions were consolidated and sent back to the international community. One hundred and sixteen of 146 (79.5%) responded, with agreement by 71/116 (61%) for the following definition: "A flare is a measurable increase in disease activity in one or more organ systems involving new or worse clinical signs and symptoms and/or laboratory measurements. It must be considered clinically significant by the assessor and usually there would be at least consideration of a change or an increase in treatment." The LFA proposes this definition for lupus flare on the basis of its high face validity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.186 | 0.174 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.016 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.009 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.010 | 0.015 |
| Research integrity | 0.011 | 0.019 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".