A stochastic time series generator with adaptive software architecture
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Stochastic time series are preferred to historic data series of shorter duration since they contain sequences that may not be observed in a relatively short historic record. Algorithms to generate stochastic time series from historic data have already been proposed. In this paper we present an implementation of an efficient stochastic time series generation algorithm and a component based front-end software system for it. The algorithm is built as three distinct and customizable components. The component based architecture allows for seamless selection of the processing steps as well as integration of new algorithms. The system has been tested successfully on several numerical experiments using hydrologic time series data to generate lengthy (1000 years) of weekly or monthly river flows for multiple locations such that all relevant statistics of the historic series are preserved in the generated series.
Stored with the screening record, where it is evidence for the labels above.
How this classification was reachedexpand
The three-model screen
all 5,600 screened works →All three models called this out of scope.
Software implementation of a stochastic hydrologic time series generator; a domain modeling tool, not scholarly research infrastructure.
The paper presents a hydrologic time-series generator rather than studying research practice.
Hydrologic time-series software tool; uses computing for domain data, does not study research infrastructure as such.
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".