ORIGINATIONS AND EXTINCTIONS: ANALYSES OF FOSSIL DATA AND SIMULATIONS
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We analyse the fossil data of Benton 1 with and without interpolation schemes. By Fourier transform analysis, we find a frequency dependence of the amplitude of 1/f for the various interpolation schemes used in the past. We illustrate that shuffling the interpolated data changes the spectra only slightly. On the other hand, an identical analysis performed on the raw (uninterpolated) fossil data gives a flat frequency spectrum. We conclude that the 1/f behavior is an artifact of the interpolation schemes. We next introduce a simulation of extinctions driven only by interactions between two trophic levels. Fourier transform analysis of the simulation data shows a frequency dependence of 1/f. When the data are grouped into a form resembling the fossil record the frequency dependence vanishes, giving a flat spectrum. Our simulation produces a frequency spectrum that agrees with the observed fossil record.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it