The impact of probe variability on brief experimental analysis of reading skills.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of probe variability on the ability to replicate results in brief experimental analysis (BEA) of reading. In the first phase of the study, 41 first- and second- grade students completed 16 oral reading fluency probes. Calculations of probe difficulty were used to identify Low and High Variability probe sets. In the second phase of the study, the performance of 40 second- through fifth-grade students during two reading interventions was compared. The best-performing intervention for each student in the initial trial was replicated during a second trial for only 43% of students regardless of probe variability. The best-performing intervention was replicated for 60% of students when average performance across two trials was compared. Rules for determining the best-performing intervention in academic BEA should consider the standard error of measurement (SEM) for the probe set to be used, the reliability for absolute decisions using the probe set, and the number of replications relative to SEM needed to adequately demonstrate experimental control.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.043 | 0.331 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".