Fiscal Multipliers to Assess Consolidation Plans
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Global output has been rising at an annualised rate of 4¼–5½ per cent per quarter since the rebound in the second quarter of 2009. We estimate that global GDP increased at an annualised rate of 4.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2010, and forecast world growth of 5 per cent in 2010 as a whole. Asia continues to drive the global recovery, with exceptionally strong growth in China, India, Taiwan and Korea in the first quarter of the year. Japan and Hong Kong also recorded strong growth, partially closing the output gaps in these economies. In the Americas, Canada and especially Brazil expanded rapidly, with more moderate growth in the US. Europe, on the other hand, continues to lag behind Asia and the Americas, with output in the EU as a whole rising at an annualised rate of just 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2010. Within Europe, output rose more rapidly than anticipated in Ireland, Portugal, Sweden, and to a lesser extent in Italy. But only in Sweden did this reflect a recovery in domestic demand, as the recovery in most of Europe has so far relied on external demand.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.014 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it