Refining Our Understanding of Beta through Quantile Regressions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has been a key theory in financial economics since the 1960s. One of its main contributions is to attempt to identify how the risk of a particular stock is related to the risk of the overall stock market using the risk measure Beta. If the relationship between an individual stock’s returns and the returns of the market exhibit heteroskedasticity, then the estimates of Beta for different quantiles of the relationship can be quite different. The behavioral ideas first proposed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), which they called prospect theory, postulate that: (i) people exhibit “loss-aversion” in a gain frame; and (ii) people exhibit “risk-seeking” in a loss frame. If this is true, people could prefer lower Beta stocks after they have experienced a gain and higher Beta stocks after they have experienced a loss. Stocks that exhibit converging heteroskedasticity (22.2% of our sample) should be preferred by investors, and stocks that exhibit diverging heteroskedasticity (12.6% of our sample) should not be preferred. Investors may be able to benefit by choosing portfolios that are more closely aligned with their preferences.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.061 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".