Forecasting watermain failure using artificial neural network modelling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
After rapid urban expansion in Ontario, post-World War II, there followed a lengthy period of time where only minimal infrastructure maintenance occurred. Now, however, most of that infrastructure is approaching the end of its predicted life expectancy, and has started failing at an unprecedented rate. The combination of low maintenance and the increasing age of water distribution infrastructure has resulted in increasing rates of pipe failures. To assign priorities for repair/replacement, artificial neural network modelling is employed. Eight independent variables are employed, namely pipe length, diameter, age, break category, soil type, pipe material, the year of Cement Mortar Lining (if implemented), and the year of Cathodic Protection (if implemented), to determine the importance of different factors influencing the pipe failure rate. The results in application to the distribution system in Etobicoke, Ontario demonstrate that ANN models have very strong predictive capabilities (R2=0.94) when compared with the multiple linear regression method (R2=0.75) to assist rehabilitation planning. Après la rapide expansion urbaine qui suivi la seconde guerre mondiale, l’Ontario connu une longue période pendant laquelle on ne porta attention qu’à l’entretien des petites infrastructures. Maintenant, la plupart des infrastructures approchent de leur fin de vie, et ont commencé à se détériorer à un rythme sans précédent. La combinaison du faible entretien et du vieillissement des infrastructures de distribution de l’eau a entraîné une augmentation des taux de bris des conduites. Pour constituer un outil d’aide à la décision, essentiel dans le choix du réseau à réhabiliter en priorité, on cartographie la prévision des défaillances du réseau de distribution d’eau à l’aide du système de modélisation des réseaux neuronaux artificiels (RNA). Cette approche a été appliquée au réseau de la ville de Etobicoke dans l’Ontario. Le modèle comporte huit variables indépendantes, notamment: longueur de la conduite, diamètre, âge, matériau, catégorie des défaillances, type de sol, plus deux facteurs de travaux de réhabilitation. Aux canalisations, on inclut l'année de mortier du ciment de revêtement (s’il a été appliqué), et l'année de la protection cathodique (si elle est appliquée). Afin de déterminer l'importance des différents facteurs qui influencent les défaillances des conduites. Les résultats obtenus pour le réseau d’eau à Etobicoke, démontrent que les modèles RNA ont de très fortes capacités de prévision (R2 = 0.94) pour faciliter les stratégies de réhabilitation, par rapport à la méthode de régression linéaire multiple (R2 = 0.75).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".