Rapid disappearance of perennial ice on Canada's most northern lake
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Field records, aerial photographs, and satellite imagery show that the perennial ice cover on Ward Hunt Lake at Canada's northern coast experienced rapid contraction and thinning after at least 50 years of relative stability. On all dates of sampling from 1953 to 2007, 3.5 to 4.3 m of perennial ice covered 65–85% of the lake surface in summer. The ice cover thinned from 2008 onward, and the lake became ice free in 2011, an event followed by 26 days of open water conditions in 2012. This rapid ice loss corresponded to a significant increase in melting degree days (MDD), from a mean (±SD) of 80.4 (±36.5) MDD (1996–2007) to 136.2 (±16.4) MDD (2008–2012). The shallow bathymetry combined with heat advection by warm inflows caused feedback effects that accelerated the ice decay. These observations show how changes across a critical threshold can result in the rapid disappearance of thick perennial ice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".