Une maquette trimestrielle de l’économie française avec anticipations rationnelles et concurrence monopolistique
Bibliographic record
Abstract
L’article présente une maquette dynamique, chiffrée sur données trimestrielles de l’économie française, décrivant une situation de concurrence monopolistique à la fois sur le marché des biens et sur celui du travail. Sur ce dernier existe un effet de persistance conforme à la théorie « insider-outsider ». Le modèle est bouclé par la prise en compte de la consommation des ménages (revenu permanent) ainsi que des dépenses publiques et des échanges extérieurs. Après avoir étudié les propriétés de long terme de la maquette et vérifié les conditions d’existence et d’unicité de trajectoires d’anticipations rationnelles au voisinage de la solution stationnaire, des multiplicateurs dynamiques correspondant à des chocs transitoires non anticipés sont calculés et interprétés.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".