The Interdependence of Australian and Foreign Real Interest Rates
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We assess the interdependence of the Australian and foreign (USA, Japan, UK, Canada, Germany, NZ) short‐term real rates of interest using a quarterly time series: 1970(1) to 1997(4). Applying Zivot and Andrews (1992) tests for stationarity subject to structural breaks we find all series to be 1(1). Structural breaks occurring in each series at different times are explained by policy changes, institutional characteristics or shocks such as the second oil crisis. Conventional bivariate cointegration tests (without breaks) provide limited evidence of interdependence, however using the Gregory Hansen (1996a,b) technique it is clear that foreign and Australian rates are interrelated once structural breaks are accommodated. Multivariate cointegration and error correction modelling confirm this finding. Policy implications are indicated.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it