MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W2002651417 · doi:10.1177/0027950106074037

UK Economy Forecast

2006· article· en· W2002651417 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Ray Barrell, Simon Kirby, Rebecca Riley

Bibliographic record

VenueNational Institute Economic Review · 2006
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
Topicdemographic modeling and climate adaptation
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsQuarter (Canadian coin)Real gross domestic productEconomicsAnnual growth %Projection (relational algebra)EconometricsEconomyAgricultural economicsGeographyMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

GDP growth accelerated from 1.6 per cent in the year to the second quarter of 2005 to 2.6 per cent in the year to the second quarter of 2006. At the time of writing the official preliminary estimates suggest economic growth was 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of this year. This is a little stronger than implied by our forecast, which is based on monthly estimates of GDP. But, taking on board the preliminary estimate in our forecast would have only a small effect on the annual growth figure for this year. Looking further forward we expect relatively stable GDP growth at around the economy's trend rate (figure 1). Our central projection is for growth of 2.6 per cent in 2007, 2008 and over the medium term. The outlook for GDP growth is not very different from our previous forecast published in the JulyReview.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.139
Threshold uncertainty score0.465

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0030.004
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0020.003
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.1390.102

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.169
GPT teacher head0.395
Teacher spread0.225 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2006
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueNational Institute Economic ReviewSame topicdemographic modeling and climate adaptationFrench-language works237,207