The Role of Risk and Risk Aversion in an Individual's Migration Decision
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper proposes a simple, partial equilibrium model for studying an individual's migration decisions. It shows that an individual may choose to delay migration when the condition appears to be favorable, giving rise to the “waiting” behavior observed in the data. Using a closed-form solution, it also examines how the duration of the waiting is affected by a number of economic factors such as the risks associated with the wages in regions of origin and destination, the individual's attitude toward risk, etc. Key Words: MigrationOptimal stopping timeRisk aversionUncertaintyJEL Classification Numbers: D800R230R510 Acknowledgments Both authors acknowledge financial support from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Comments by Murray Carlson, Avinash Dixit and Peter Taylor are much appreciated. The usual disclaimer applies. Notes aSee Ghatak et al.Citation7 for a recent survey on migration theories and evidence. bFurther evidence in support of the role of uncertainty in the migration decision is discussed by StarkCitation10, who suggests that if future earnings are uncertain and positively correlated in a geographically specific area, the migration decision of a member of the income-pooling family diversifies risk. WoodCitation11 also reports that uncertainty with respect to losing the present job and the skills were important determinants of the migration decision. cLemma A.1 provides a closed form expression for W X . dSchwarze and WagnerCitation9 report that most of the intra-German migration flows take place in the midst of 1990 just before the German monetary unification. Since then the flows seem to have steadily declined in spite of the fact that the wage differential between the two regions of Germany remains persistently high at about 50%. eSee, for example, BurdaCitation4.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it