COVARIANCE-BASED ORTHOGONALITY TESTS FOR REGRESSORS WITH UNKNOWN PERSISTENCE
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper develops a new test of orthogonality based on a zero restriction on the covariance between the dependent variable and the predictor. The test provides a useful alternative to regression-based tests when conditioning variables have roots close or equal to unity. In this case standard predictive regression tests can suffer from well-documented size distortion. Moreover, under the alternative hypothesis, they force the dependent variable to share the same order of integration as the predictor, whereas in practice the dependent variable often appears stationary and the predictor may be near-nonstationary. By contrast, the new test does not enforce the same orders of integration and is therefore capable of detecting a rich set of alternatives to orthogonality that are excluded by the standard predictive regression model. Moreover, the test statistic has a standard normal limit distribution for both unit root and local-to-unity conditioning variables, without prior knowledge of the local-to-unity parameter. If the conditioning variable is stationary, the test remains conservative and consistent. Simulations suggest good small-sample performance. As an empirical application, we test for the predictability of stock returns using two persistent predictors, the dividend-price ratio and short-term interest rate.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it