The Gibbs and splitmerge sampler for population mixture analysis from genetic data with incomplete baselines
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although population mixtures often include contributions from novel populations as well as from baseline populations previously sampled, unlabeled mixture individuals can be separated to their sources from genetic data. A Gibbs and splitmerge Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler is described for successively partitioning a genetic mixture sample into plausible subsets of individuals from each of the baseline and extra-baseline populations present. The subsets are selected to satisfy the HardyWeinberg and linkage equilibrium conditions expected for large, panmictic populations. The number of populations present can be inferred from the distribution for counts of subsets per partition drawn by the sampler. To further summarize the sampler's output, co-assignment probabilities of mixture individuals to the same subsets are computed from the partitions and are used to construct a binary tree of their relatedness. The tree graphically displays the clusters of mixture individuals together with a quantitative measure of the evidence supporting their various separate and common sources. The methodology is applied to several simulated and real data sets to illustrate its use and demonstrate the sampler's superior performance.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it