Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance through Helioclim maps
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To handle the increasing penetration rate of intermittent energies such as photo-voltaic power plants, grid managers require accurate forecasts of the primary resources. In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) up to 1 hour using HelioClim-3 maps as only inputs. HelioClim-3 maps are Solar Surface Irradiance (SSI) maps derived from geostationary satellite images through the Heliosat-2 method. We use a block matching algorithm to retrieve the motion vector field, allowing us to anticipate the future on site GHI values. The results were then corrected following a statistical post-processing step tuned on a training data set. The model has been tested on a one year data set acquired on the SIRTA site, Polytechnique campus, France. Besides the very promising performances of the proposed method compared to the persistence model, we extracted additional forecast information from the SSI maps like the minimum and maximum expected values, which enlighten the model's potential and limitations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".