Ties Versus Institutions: Revisiting Foreign Interventions and Secessionist Movements
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. This article is a response to one published by Louis Bélanger, Érick Duchesne and Jonathan Paquin challenging existing accounts for the patterns of external support for secessionist movements. They assert that regime type—democracy—provides a better explanation than either vulnerability or ethnic ties. I take issue with their operationalization of my arguments along with other aspects of their work. Here, I replicate their study first using their data and importing my variable measuring not just ethnic affinity with the secessionists but the possibilities of a country having ties with either or both sides of an ethnic conflict. Then, using my data, I again replicate their analyses. I find that ethnic ties, properly measured, not only better accounts for the international relations of secession but of ethnic conflict in general. Résumé. Ce texte est une réplique à l'article de Louis Bélanger, Érick Duchesne et Jonathan Paquin, qui conteste les explications usuelles des variations dans l'appui international aux mouvements sécessionnistes. Selon eux, plus que la vulnérabilité ou les liens ethniques, c'est le type de régime – soit la démocratie – qui explique mieux le phénomène. Je remets en question leur façon d'opérationnaliser mes arguments, ainsi que plusieurs autres aspects de leur recherche. Afin de tester leurs résultats, je reproduis d'abord leur étude en utilisant leurs données et en y ajoutant ma variable qui mesure non seulement les affinités ethniques avec les sécessionnistes, mais également l'éventualité qu'un pays entretienne des relations avec l'un ou l'autre des protagonistes d'un conflit ethnique. Puis, je reprends leur analyse en utilisant mes propres données. Il en ressort que, lorsqu'elle est mesurée correctement, la variable des liens ethniques fournit une meilleure compréhension non seulement des relations internationales du phénomène de sécession, mais également des conflits ethniques en général.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it