The Value of Routine Preoperative Electrocardiography in Predicting Myocardial Infarction After Noncardiac Surgery
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Brief Objective: The added value of a preoperative electrocardiogram (ECG) in the prediction of postoperative myocardial infarction (POMI) and death was compared with clinical risk factors identified from the patient's history. Summary of Background Data: An ECG is frequently performed before surgery to screen for asymptomatic coronary artery disease. However, the value of ECG abnormalities to predict POMI has been questioned. Methods: The study included 2967 noncardiac surgery patients >50 years of age from 2 university hospitals, who were expected to stay in the hospital for >24 hours. All data were obtained from electronic record-keeping systems. Patient history and ECG abnormalities were considered as potential predictors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to obtain the independent predictors of POMI and all-cause in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC area) was estimated to evaluate the ability of different models to discriminate between patients with and without the outcome. Results: A preoperative ECG was available in 2422 patients (80%) and 1087 (45%) of the ECGs showed at least one abnormality. The ROC area of the model that included the independent predictors of POMI obtained from patient history, ie, ischemic heart disease and high-risk surgery, was 0.80. ECG abnormalities that were associated with POMI were a right and a left bundle branch block. After adding these abnormalities in the regression model, the ROC area remained 0.80. Similar results were found for all-cause mortality. Conclusions: Bundle branch blocks identified on the preoperative ECG were related to POMI and death but did not improve prediction beyond risk factors identified on patient history. Postoperative myocardial infarction may be predicted using clinical risk factors; the additional predictive value of the preoperative electrocardiogram was assessed in 2422 patients. Right and left bundle branch blocks were associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction but did not significantly improve upon clinical factors.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".